Best CFB coaches against the spread in November - Good news for Oklahoma Sooners
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALThe Oklahoma Sooners have not been shown a ton of respect from the College Football Playoff committee thus far. The Sooners ranked eighth in the initial rankings and remained in the same position after a Week 10 bye. They are unbeaten, but five of their first six wins came by single digits, and they were forced to make some clutch, late plays to avoid an ignominious loss to lowly Kansas on Oct. 23.
OU has scored 50-plus points in three of four games since head coach Lincoln Riley handed the quarterback reins to freshman Caleb Williams, but the secondary has been an injury-laden mess, and after rising to 15th in defensive SP+ last season, OU is currently 55th.
There is hope. The secondary appears to be near full strength, and to the extent that strength of schedule concerns are holding them back, the Sooners are preparing for a rugged stretch run. The next three weeks, they play at Baylor, Iowa State at home and at 8-1 Oklahoma State. They could play OSU again the following week in the Big 12 championship game as well. If they finish 13-0, they're almost certainly back in the CFP.
They have a trump card, too; it's November. Riley is unbeaten as a head coach in November. In fact, the Sooners haven't lost in November since 2014, the year before he arrived in Norman as offensive coordinator. This is when OU peaks. It's in the cards.
Of course, OU is almost always favored in November, too. During the Sooners' current 23-game November winning streak, they were an underdog just twice, and narrowly at that -- they were +2 at No. 11 Oklahoma State in 2017 (they won, 62-52) and +2.5 at No. 4 Baylor in 2015 (they won 44-34). They're the Big 12's bell cow (for now), they always play Texas in October, and they're almost always favored down the stretch, just as they will be in their final conference games of 2021.
Winning 23 straight, even as a favorite, is incredibly impressive, and Riley deserves loads of credit for it. But the Sooners' 12-10-1 record against the spread in this run (7-6-1 with Riley as head coach) reminds us that most of the time they're playing about as expected. It also begs a question, who is the most impressive November coach?
We'll look at this answer in different ways: Which active coaches have done the best and worst jobs of consistently exceeding expectations in November, and which have done so over the last four decades or so?
Best active November coaches ATS
Among the head coaches who began 2021 in one of the 130 FBS jobs and have at least 10 November games under their belt, here are the top-10 win percentages against the spread.1. Justin Wilcox, California Golden Bears (10-4, 71.4%). Granted, he's 0-1 in 2021 after his depleted roster handed Arizona its first win of the season, and during last year's odd November his Golden Bears covered just once in three tries. But in 2018-19, Cal went 5-2 overall and 6-1 against the spread, rallying to finish bowl eligible both years.
2. Jamey Chadwell, Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (8-3-1, 70.8%). Chadwell's four seasons as Coastal head coach have been defined in two periods. They were underdogs in his first seven November games but went 5-2 ATS (and 2-5 straight up), and they've been favored in his last five (3-1-1 ATS, 5-0 straight up). Being the top dog evidently looks good on the Chants.
3. Kalani Sitake, BYU Cougars (14-6, 70.0%). Most of BYU's best opponents show up on the schedule in September, and the Cougars have only been November underdogs four times under Sitake. Still, they've only lost five times and failed to cover in six, including four times in an injury-addled 2019 stretch run.
4. Mike Norvell, Florida State Seminoles (12-6, 66.7%). He's 0-3 both straight up and against the spread in November since taking the Florida State job, but Norvell's Memphis teams were incredible late from 2016-19, going 14-1 straight up and 12-3 ATS. They were usually favored but almost always handled their business.
5. Sean Lewis, Kent State Golden Flashes (8-4, 66.7%). A man meant for MACtion. Since a shaky 2018, Lewis' Golden Flashes have gone 7-2 both straight up and against the spread in the MAC's festival of mostly weeknight games, and last week's win over NIU gives them a 65% chance of winning the MAC East, per ESPN's FPI.
6. Blake Anderson, Utah State Aggies (15-8, 65.2%). This is Anderson's first season at USU -- his Aggies won and covered on Saturday against NMSU -- but at Arkansas State he unleashed a torrid streak from 2014-18. Over a 15-game stretch, the Red Wolves went 13-2 straight up and 12-3 ATS in November.
7. Rod Carey, Temple Owls (21-11-1, 65.2%). The original MACtion master, Carey went 19-6 straight up and 16-8-1 ATS at NIU from 2013-18 and aced his first November test at Temple (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS), but his Owls have lost four straight since, covering only once.
8. Jeff Brohm, Purdue Boilermakers (17-9-1, 64.8%). Take out 2020 (0-3 straight up and ATS), and Brohm's November numbers are incredible: His Purdue and WKU teams are otherwise 17-6 straight up and 16-6-1 ATS in the 11th month. They began this month by beating No. 3 Michigan State.
9. Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern Wildcats (37-21-1, 63.6%). Fitzgerald lives to confound the numbers. His close-games record is nearly untouchable, and in his 16 seasons in Evanston, the Wildcats have gone under .500 ATS just three times in November (2007, 2010, 2013). They're 1-0 thus far in 2021.
10. Brent Brennan, San José State Spartans (9-5-1, 63.3%). Their 2020 MWC title run aside, Brennan's Spartans generally serve the role of valiant underdog. They've been favored in just three of his 15 November games and have won just four, but after starting 0-2 ATS, he's 9-3-1 since.
